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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/25 11:13

   Wheat Higher at Midday

   Trade is mixed at midday, wheat up, corn and beans narrowly mixed.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow up 138. The interest 
rate products are unchanged. The dollar index is 4 higher. Energies are mixed 
with crude oil down $0.49. Livestock trade is higher with lean hogs trading 
higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $7. 

   CORN

   Corn trade is 1 to 3 cents lower at midday trading mostly in a 6 cent range 
on all months. We found support for December at the $3.64 low that we put in 
yesterday. Ethanol usage should remain high with great margins for producers 
and blenders. The export and feed sectors though still have some question marks 
in regard to increasing usage versus the current USDA projections. Chart 
support will continue to be round numbers under the recent low, such as $3.60 
for December corn at this jucture. First resistance would be the 10 day moving 
average at $3.77. Forecasts have moisture for the eastern belt, light for the 
western belt over the next 10 days with temperatures staying mostly below 
normal to limit stress. Trade remains oversold which could help support a 
bounce here as shorts look to lock in profit ahead of the month end next 
Thursday. The forecasts and weather today should direct us into the close along 
with spillover direction from beans. 

   SOYBEANS

   Soybeans at midday are unchanged to 8 cents lower and currently trading in 
the middle third of the 17 cent range. Meal is narrowly mixed and oil is 18 to 
25 points lower. Rain in the upper Midwest put pressure on the market early 
today but has subsided. Weather remains mostly non-threating but some areas 
will need an upturn in moisture soon. The November contract low at $10.55 is 
support and the 20-day moving average at $11.07 (Thursday morning high) is 
resistance. Weather will drive direction, moisture added to the forecasts we 
finish lower today, and if the noon forecasts happens to heat up and dry out 
the best bet would be a short covering run into the close. Market bears are 
still in control, with big carryover projections suggesting applying downward 
pressure. 

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade has seen a bit of a bounce today with trade 3 to 6 cents up in 
front months. This intra-day rally will need spillover support from the row 
crops otherwise it will struggle into the close. The demand news needs to pick 
up now that 2014 supply is mostly known. The weekly sales number was okay but 
anything under 500,000 tons is not going to turn this market around. Concerns 
over political issues in the Black Sea area have moved to the back burner, but 
always threaten to become a force. On the chart, trade put in new lows which 
are support. Resistance on the September charts are at $5.49 for Chicago wheat 
and $6.32 for Kansas City where we find the 20-day and 10-day moving averages 
respectively. 

    

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.     

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

   Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala 


(CZ)

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