DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/17 11:18
Wheat, Soybeans Higher at Midday
Grain trade is flat to higher at midday following a mixed morning.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow futures up 120 points.
The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 45 higher. Energies
are higher with crude 50 cents higher. Livestock trade has cattle and feeders
down the limit again, with hogs 150 lower. Precious metals are flat to higher
with gold up $1.
Corn trade is unchanged to fractionally higher at midday with trade chopping
around steady the past few hours. Crude oil remains under pressure and the
dollar is firmer ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting today. Talk continues
about increase Chinese interest in corn and DDGs, but corn sales have been
little hard confirmation. Basis has remained stable recently with some
localized improvements. The weekly ethanol production report showed .02%
increase on the week, and stocks were down 0.05% on the week. Gasoline demand
was 9.6% higher on the week. This has nearby ethanol futures 1 to 2 cents
higher at midday. The March contract chart support level is at the November
$4.01 high; resistance is at the 200-day moving average up at $4.23.
Soybean trade is 2 to 5 higher at midday in choppy trade. Meal is 0.50 to
$1.50 higher and oil is flat to 10 points higher. The South American crop
continues to progress with decent weather especially in Brazil. U.S. export
demand remains good helping provide support on breaks with large Chinese sales
expected this week with a trade delegation in town. We found good support with
the break around and below $10 two weeks ago which shows where the market found
value for now. Nearby January chart support now is at the $10.21 100-day then
the $10.11 50-day. Resistance is at the $10.60 high printed last week, then the
$10.86 November high.
Wheat trade is 3 to 7 cents higher at midday with chart buying and some
premium getting added. Fundamental support stems from Russian uncertainty and
the resulting improved commercial demand was users look to cover their needs
just-in-case. Weather looks mostly unchanged in the near term for most growing
areas with no immediate winter kill issues. The dollar has firmed this morning
which should limit upside. On the March Kansas City chart support is at the
10-day moving at $6.38, with the longer term resistance the 200-day at $6.82.
Chicago has moved above its 200-day moving average bring in chart buying. The
Chicago March 200-day and highest major moving average is at $6.15.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the president of FuturesOne
and a registered Trading Adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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