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Tuesday, May 26, 2015  
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DTN Midday Grain Comments     05/26 11:36

   Corn, Wheat Lower at Midday

   Wheat is sharply lower at midday, pulling corn lower.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow index down 170. The 
interest rate products are mostly lower. The dollar index is 108 points higher. 
Energies are lower, crude is down 1.50. Livestock trade is mixed with feeder 
cattle leading. Precious metals are lower with gold down $16.


   Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower at midday with wheat weakness and dollar 
strength pulling corn to new lows for the move. Much of the Corn Belt looks to 
remain damp in the near term, supporting moisture reserves but hindering field 
work and early crop development. The weekly crop progress report is expected to 
show planting progress moving fairly close to complete, emergence above normal, 
and there may be the first conditions report this week. The weekly export 
inspections were good at 1.006 million metric tons. Ethanol margins remain OK 
but are under pressure from weaker energy prices. On the December chart 
resistance is at the 10-day and 20-day moving averages both at $3.80 with 
support at the $3.72 recent low, which we have tested this morning. July 
futures dropped below is previous low for the move at $3.55 3/4. If we cannot 
get back above this level do not be surprised to see long liquidation around 
the close.  


   Soybean trade is flat to 3 cents higher in quiet trade at midday with light 
commercial buying again supporting nearby trade. Meal is $2 to $3 higher and 
oil is 30 to 40 points higher. Wet weather will continue to limit soybean 
planting in some areas, with planting progress expected to be near the 5 year 
average, with emergence slightly below average. The weekly export inspections 
were OK at 291,192 metric tons. On the November soybean chart the 10-day at 
$9.29 is resistance with support at $9, the contract low today of $9.06 is 
nearby support. If we cut through $9 easily this week, expect some long 
liquidation to most likely give us an active day to two, we expect some larger 
sell stop orders below the physiological $9 level.


   Wheat trade is 12 to 18 cents lower across the board at midday with the 
sharply stronger dollar helping to trigger selling at midday. Excessively wet 
weather in the U.S. and hints of dryness elsewhere will continue to support the 
trade in the near term, but the dollar is very negative with the big jump over 
the past week. The weekly crop progress report could show some deterioration 
due to flooding, while spring wheat conditions should remain unchanged or a 
little better. The weekly export inspections were a little better at 418,376 
metric tons. On Kansas City July chart support is now the 50-day moving average 
at $5.37 which we are below at midday, with resistance at the 100-day at $5.65 
then the 200-day at $5.82.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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